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Climate Change and Agriculture In South Asia: Looking for An Optimal Trade Policy AgEcon
Laborde, David.
This paper aims to study how alternative trade policies will help mitigate the effects of climate change in agriculture in South Asia. We use a modified version of MIRAGE CGE for long term projections and allowing modeling of climate change effects (impact on yield) at a subregional level (163 geographical units at the world level) to simulate the effects of 13 SRES scenarios in 8 different trade policy landscapes. Based on these results, we discuss the ranking of trade policy options based on expected values but also in terms of variance using the theory of decision in uncertainty. Choices between unilateral and regional strategies for the countries of the sub regions are compared. Our results confirm that South Asia will be one of the most adversely...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Climate Change; Trade Policy; Computable General Equilibrium; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade; Q54; C68; N5; N75; O24; F13; Q11; Q17.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104526
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Climate change and food security to 2030: a global economy-wide perspective AgEcon
Valenzuela, Ernesto; Anderson, Kym.
The effects of climate change on agriculture raise major food security concerns. We use a global economy-wide model to assess the effects on farm product prices of expected yield changes. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity in the tropics on the productivity of unskilled workers in developing countries. Given the degrees of uncertainty about plausible effects of climate change, our modelling accounts for a range of yield productivity and labor shocks. The results entail consequences for international agricultural prices, national food consumption, self sufficiency, net farm income and economic welfare.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Climate change; Crop and labor productivity growth; Global economy-wide model projections; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Security and Poverty; D58; F17; Q17; Q24; Q54.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117616
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Climate Change and Food Security to 2050: A Global Economy-wide Perspective AgEcon
Valenzuela, Ernesto; Anderson, Kym.
Recent analyses of the possible adverse effects of climate change on agriculture in developing countries have raised food security concerns, especially for farm households whose crop productivity is expected to fall. The present study uses the GTAP global economy-wide model to capture at the same time the expected positive effects on temperate zone crop productivity, which will more or less offset the upward pressure on farm product prices from yield falls in developing countries. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity on the productivity of unskilled workers in the tropics, but since they work in nonfarm as well as farm activities the net effect of that shock on agriculture’s competitiveness is an empirical matter....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Climate change; Crop and labour productivity growth; Global computable general equilibrium model projections; Productivity Analysis; D58; F17; Q17; Q24; Q54.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100531
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Commodity prices, structural constraints and food price shocks in Tanzania AgEcon
Conforti, Piero; Sarris, Alexander H..
This paper explores the impact of the recent soar in world commodity prices on economic activity and household welfare in Tanzania, and the possible policy responses to that shock. The analysis is based on a single country computable general equilibrium model that includes considerable factor market and household details, as well as marketing margins between producers, consumers and foreign markets. Results indicate that the Tanzanian economy may fail to benefit from the opportunities arising from the increase in world agricultural prices, as this would imply a considerable reduction in most production activities, but the few that are directly export oriented. Policies can counteract only to a limited extent these negative impacts. Tariff and domestic tax...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Food price soar; General equilibrium policy analysis; Tanzania; Structural constraints; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Security and Poverty; International Development; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51905
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Communication Costs and Agro-Food Trade in OECD Countries AgEcon
Bojnec, Stefan; Ferto, Imre.
The paper analyses the effects of communication costs for agro-food trade in OECD countries between 1995 and 2003 using gravity model. We find that the link between the communication costs and agro-food trade flows in developed countries is significantly stronger for agricultural than for food products. The improved communication services reduce trade transaction costs. The estimations also confirmed importance of the economy size, level of development in importer countries, and trade distance. The other traditional gravity variables like contiguity, language and regional free trade agreements have significant impacts in the majority of specifications
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Communication costs; Agro-food trade; Gravity model; International Relations/Trade; F14; F23; Q17.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50937
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COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES IN AGRO-FOOD TRADE OF HUNGARY, CROATIA AND SLOVENIA WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION AgEcon
Bojnec, Stefan; Ferto, Imre.
This paper investigates comparative trade advantages in agro-food trade. We analyze comparative advantages of Hungarian, Croatian and Slovenian agro-food trade in the European Union (EU) markets. Both the levels and pattern of the revealed comparative advantage measure are investigated. The empirical research seeks to explain how revealed comparative advantages have developed across countries, main product groups and over time and what are likely their implications for multifunctional rural development in the enlarged EU. We employ a disaggregated trade dataset to identify the revealed comparative advantages to provide broader policy implications. The empirical results confirmed bulk of agro-food and forestry products with revealed comparative advantages...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Comparative advantage; Croatia; Hungary; Slovenia.; Agribusiness; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; International Relations/Trade; Marketing; Political Economy; Production Economics; F14; Q17.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90870
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Comparative Advantages, Transaction Costs and Factor Content of Agricultural Trade: Empirical Evidence from CEE AgEcon
Kancs, d'Artis; Ciaian, Pavel; Pokrivcak, Jan.
The present study examines factor content of the CEE transition country agricultural trade. We examine the relative country abundance for labour, capital and land, and test the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) hypothesis. Our empirical findings suggest that the factor content of agricultural exports and imports is rather similar in CEE and most of the agricultural trade flows do not satisfy the HOV prediction. In order to explain the general lack of agricultural specialisation and the observed paradox in the CEE's agricultural trade, we examine the role of transaction costs and market imperfections. We find that transaction costs and market imperfections distort farm specialisation and hence factor content of agricultural trade.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Factor Content; Agricultural Trade; Comparative Advantages; Transaction Cost; Agricultural and Food Policy; F12; F14; D23; Q12; Q17.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115421
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Compendium of Economic and Trade Indicators by Region, 1960 to 2004 AgEcon
Sandri, Damiano; Valenzuela, Ernesto; Anderson, Kym.
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Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Distorted incentives; Agricultural and trade policy reforms; National agricultural development; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; F13; F14; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48325
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Competition and Dynamics in Trade Patterns: Hungarian and Slovenian Agri-Food Trade with the European Unions' Trading Partners AgEcon
Bojnec, Stefan; Ferto, Imre.
Trade balances and unit values in Hungarian and Slovenian bilateral agri-food trade with Austria, Germany and Italy, respectively, to distinguish types of the one-way and the two-way trade flows, categories of price competition and categories of quality competition in the twoway trade flows, their dynamics and stability over time are analyzed. The two-way matched trade flows prevail among trade types. In the matched two-way bilateral agri-food trade there is prevalence of categories of price competition over categories of non-price competition, but varies across trading partners. In Hungarian agri-food trade the first category of successful price competition and the third category of successful non-price or quality competition prevail, suggesting...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Competition; Trade types; Dynamics; Mobility index; F12; Q17; Q18; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25760
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Competition between the U.S. and West Africa in International Cotton Trade: A Focus on Import Demand in China AgEcon
Muhammad, Andrew; McPhail, Lihong Lu; Kiawu, James.
We estimate the demand for imported cotton in China and assess the competitiveness of cotton-exporting countries. Given the assertion that African cotton producers are ill affected by U.S. cotton subsidies, our focus is the price competition between the C4 countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad and Mali) and United States in China. Demand estimates are used to project how U.S. prices affect China’s imports by country. In comparing demand projections, results show that the relationship between the United States and the C4 has more to do with how U.S. prices can affect global prices rather than any substitute or competitive relationship in the Chinese market.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Africa; China; Cotton; Demand; Imports; United States; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; F17; Q11; Q17.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103210
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Competitive Analysis and Market Power of China’s Soybean Import Market AgEcon
Song, Baohui; Marchant, Mary A.; Reed, Michael R.; Xu, Shuang.
This research conducts a competitive structure analysis of the Chinese soybean import market which leads to the hypothesis that China’s soybean importers may have stronger market power in China’s soybean import market. Then, this research develops and simultaneously estimates a two-country partial equilibrium trade model to test U.S.-China market power of soybean trade. The empirical result supports our hypothesis that Chinese soybean importers have stronger market power relative to U.S. soybean exporters. This Chinese market power can be countered by U.S. and South American companies through developing new and expanding existing markets for soybeans throughout the world and investing in Chinese soybean storage and crushing capacity.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Chinese soybean import market; Competitive structure analysis; Market power; Two-country partial equilibrium trade model; International Relations/Trade; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Q10; Q12; Q17.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53744
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Competitiveness and Agri-food Trade: An Empirical Analysis in the European Union AgEcon
Banterle, Alessandro.
The purpose of this paper is to analyse the competitive performance of the EU countries for food trade in the European market during the period 1990-2003. To assess such performance the analysis considers comparative advantage and evaluates three indices: export market share (EMS), revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and net export index (NEI). These three indices are found to be high in the Netherlands, France, Belgium and Spain, but only Spain has shown significant competitive performance during the last decade. Also the competitive performance of Germany and Italy is good, although their RCA and NEI values are low. Among the other countries the trend in the indices for Austria, Portugal and Sweden is on the increase.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Competitive performance measures; Competitiveness; Agri-food trade; European Union; International Relations/Trade; Q17; L66; F14.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24692
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Competiveness of Latin American Exports in the U.S. Banana Market AgEcon
Muhammad, Andrew; Fonsah, Esendugue Greg; Zahniser, Steven.
U.S. banana demand differentiated by country of origin is estimated using the generalized dynamic Rotterdam model. Results indicate that dynamic factors play a significant role in determining the allocation of U.S. banana expenditures across exporting sources. Of particular interest is Guatemala’s increased share and Costa Rica’s decreased share of U.S. banana supply. A number of factors explained why Guatemala replaced Costa Rica as the leading U.S. supplier in 2007. (1) Guatemala is the least expensive source on average. (2) Habit persistence, adjustment costs, and other dynamic factors favor Guatemala’s exports. (3) Given increases in the relative price of Costa Rica’s bananas, the price competition between Costa Rica and Guatemala is highly...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Bananas; Imports; Demand; Latin America; United States; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; F14; Q11; Q13; Q17.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98365
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Compliance with international food safety standards as an outcome of a Nash bargaining process: a case study on Kenyan small scale green beans farms AgEcon
Nimenya, Nicodeme; Frahan, Bruno Henry de; Ndimira, Pascal-Firmin.
This study provides a stylized model on “Exit, voice and loyalty” as alternative strategic responses taken by Kenyan green beans farmers in the context of new and more stringent international food safety standards. On the analytical side, we use the Nash bargaining theory where the exporter and a representative grower bargain over the product quality level and the premium producer price. The comparative statics analysis shows that the producer bargaining power unlike the compliance costs has, ceteris paribus, a positive effect on the equilibrium quality level while these exogenous variables have ambiguous effects on producer price at equilibrium. Empirical results from logit model estimation with survey data at farm-level in Kenya show that households with...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Bargaining; Small-scale farm; Voice; Agribusiness; Consumer/Household Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; D18; O17; O33; Q13; Q17.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53004
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Consequences of Biotechnology Policy for Competitiveness and Trade of Southern U.S. Agriculture AgEcon
Jolly, Curtis M.; Jefferson-Moore, Kenrett Y.; Traxler, Greg.
The effect of policy decisions on the competitiveness of genetically modified (GM) crops was examined. The United States has been an early innovator in the development and use of biotechnology crops and has expanded its export market share of the three major GM crops: soybeans, cotton, and corn. Cotton, soybeans, and corn are all grown in the southern states, but these states have an apparent comparative advantage only in the production of cotton, which may be strengthened with the adoption of genetically modified cotton. The influence of biotechnology on the competitiveness of soybeans and corn for the southern states through the introduction of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) is not clear but is probably negligible.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Biotechnology; Competitiveness; Southern agriculture; Q13; Q17; Q16; Q18.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43514
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Constitutional Rules and Agricultural Policy Outcomes AgEcon
Olper, Alessandro; Raimondi, Valentina.
This paper deals with the effect of constitutional rules on agricultural policy outcomes in a panel of observations for more than 70 developing and developed countries in the 1955-2005 period. Testable hypotheses are drawn from recent developments in the comparative politics literature that see political institutions as key elements in shaping public policies. Using differences-in-differences regressions we find a positive effect of a transition into democracy on agricultural protection. However, this average effect masks substantial heterogeneities across different forms of democracy. Indeed, what matters are transitions to proportional (as opposed to majoritarian) democracies, as well as to permanent (as opposed to temporary) democracies. Moreover, while...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Distorted incentives; Agricultural and trade policy reforms; National agricultural development; Comparative Political Economics; Agricultural Distortions; Constitutional Rules; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; F13; F14; Q17; Q18; D72; H23; O13; P16.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50304
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Constraining U.S. and EU Domestic Support in Agriculture: The October 2005 WTO Proposals AgEcon
Brink, Lars.
In October 2005 the USA, EU, and G-20 submitted proposals on domestic support in the WTO agriculture negotiations. We consider the de minimis rules and allowances, project future (2014) distorting support for the USA and the EU-15, calculate the constraints resulting from projected values of production combined with the U.S., EU and G-20 proposals, and compare their effectiveness in constraining components of distorting support and future applied support. The de minimis rules make a significant difference for future allowed support. Under the U.S. proposal the Overall commitment constrains neither the USA nor the EU. Under the EU and especially the G-20 proposals the Overall commitment constrains distorting support to be less than the sum of the cap on...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agriculture; AMS; De minimis; Domestic support; Overall reduction; WTO; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; Q17.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25399
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COPPER CRISIS AND AGRICULTURAL RENAISSANCE IN ZAMBIA: AN ECONOMY-WIDE ANALYSIS AgEcon
Lofgren, Hans; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James.
Zambia's strong dependence on copper exports has suppressed other tradables sectors, indicative of a Dutch disease phenomenon. The current copper crisis will have strong economic effects, possibly reversing such Dutch disease effects. We use a computable general equilibrium model built around a 1995 social accounting matrix to simulate the short- and long-run effects of two scenarios that reflect the current crisis, a 20 percent reduction in world copper prices and a complete collapse of copper mining. Compared to the short run, the long run is characterized by more flexibility in production technology and capital allocation. Both scenarios require a significant reduction in the "non-copper" trade deficit, absorption, and household consumption. The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Zambia; Copper; Structural adjustment; Agriculture; General equilibrium; International Development; C68; O55; Q17; Q32.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25805
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Country and border effects in the transmission of maize prices in Eastern Africa: evidence from a semi-parametric regression model AgEcon
Ihle, Rico; von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan; Zorya, Sergiy.
This study uses a rich dataset of 85 market pairs between January 2000 and October 2008 for Kenya, Tanzanian and Uganda, the three largest member countries of the East Africa Community, to analyze the factors determining national and cross-national maize price transmission. Although the three countries are members of the community’s customs union and they each claim to pursue maize trade without borders, their agricultural trade policies still differ, thus affecting prices and trade flows to different extents. This analysis extends the existing border effects literature in three ways. First, it assesses the magnitude of price transmission, instead of analyzing trade flows or price variability. Second, distance is shown to have a significant impact on price...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Border effect; Spatial market integration; Cointegration; Semi-parametric regression; Partially linear model; Eastern Africa; Maize; Demand and Price Analysis; C32; Q11; Q13; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96184
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Declining "Common" Agricultural Policy? CAP Reform of 2003 and Its National Implementation in the Member States AgEcon
Halmai, Peter; Elekes, Andrea.
This paper focuses on the basic element of the 2003 CAP reform process: on the single farm payment and its national implementation models. We examine possible economic impacts (production distorting effects, redistribution, restructuring, resource allocation and effects on land market) of the basic SFP models. In sum, we can say that the 2003 CAP reform and the new support provide an opportunity to overcome some of the difficulties the CAP faces with. However, the wide range of national diversities threatens the principle of the single market, and transparency and operation of the common market organizations. As there is a wide range of possible constructions member states can decide for, the common nature of the CAP gets more and more questionable.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: CAP reform; Decoupling; Single farm payment; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q17; Q18; F13; F15.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24480
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